Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 6:00 AM ET · 3 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7: DL 5625 at 06:00 is the safest bet, 4% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 9–14%.

Safest bet that day DL 5625 MKE 06:00 → LGA 09:15 · 4% chance 15+ min late · usually 89% on time Riskiest YX 5612 MKE 17:58 → LGA 21:21 · 14% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 9% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 7% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 5625 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	MKE 06:00	LGA 09:15	4%	2%	0.7%	89%
DL 5613 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	MKE 13:17	LGA 16:51	9%	4%	0.8%	44%
YX 5612 Republic	MKE 17:58	LGA 21:21	14%	6%	0.7%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON