tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 5:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7: one nonstop, WN 1508 at 11:50, with a 5% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
WN 1508 Southwest MKE 11:50 MCI 13:24 5% 1% 0.5% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Kansas City on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → MKE 05:00 → ORD 05:59UA 5799 · flown by SkyWest 2h 41m Chicago ORD 08:40 → MCI 10:29UA 1484 5h 29m 99% 90%
DeltaDetails → MKE 05:40 → ATL 08:41DL 1221 2h 24m Atlanta ATL 11:05 → MCI 12:13DL 2747 6h 33m 99% 90%
DeltaDetails → MKE 07:11 → DTW 09:30DL 3757 · flown by SkyWest 2h 55m Detroit DTW 12:25 → MCI 13:24DL 2741 6h 13m 97% 89%
DeltaDetails → MKE 07:00 → SLC 09:25DL 2716 1h 09m Salt Lake City SLC 10:34 → MCI 13:57DL 2882 6h 57m 97% 89%
DeltaDetails → MKE 14:59 → ATL 18:06DL 1246 2h 02m Atlanta ATL 20:08 → MCI 21:24DL 3023 6h 25m 99% 88%
UnitedDetails → MKE 06:20 → ORD 07:30UA 5896 · flown by SkyWest 3h 23m Chicago ORD 10:53 → MCI 12:40UA 5997 · flown by SkyWest 6h 20m 98% 88%
DeltaDetails → MKE 10:12 → ATL 13:16DL 2999 2h 04m Atlanta ATL 15:20 → MCI 16:30DL 1660 6h 18m 99% 88%
UnitedDetails → MKE 08:50 → ORD 10:00UA 5402 · flown by SkyWest 2h 40m Chicago ORD 12:40 → MCI 14:20UA 561 5h 30m 98% 87%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON