Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 16 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7: UA 5799 at 05:00 is the safest bet, 3% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 17–19%.

Safest bet that day UA 5799 MKE 05:00 → ORD 05:59 · 3% chance 15+ min late · usually 81% on time Riskiest UA 5648 MKE 15:46 → ORD 16:44 · 20% chance 15+ min late · usually 51% on time

Against a calm day 12% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 11% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 5799 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	MKE 05:00	ORD 05:59	3%	3%	0.7%	81%
AA 6261 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	MKE 05:13	ORD 06:16	5%	3%	0.7%	69%
UA 5896 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	MKE 06:20	ORD 07:30	8%	3%	0.7%	89%
MQ 4018 Envoy	MKE 11:35	ORD 12:33	9%	3%	0.7%	no record
UA 5402 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	MKE 08:50	ORD 10:00	10%	4%	0.7%	74%
MQ 4035 Envoy	MKE 14:48	ORD 15:46	10%	3%	0.7%	no record
AA 6479 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	MKE 07:28	ORD 08:29	11%	3%	0.7%	70%
UA 5559 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	MKE 10:47	ORD 11:55	11%	4%	0.7%	63%
OO 4993 SkyWest	MKE 08:32	ORD 09:48	12%	4%	0.7%	no record
UA 4803 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	MKE 07:50	ORD 09:00	12%	4%	0.7%	78%
UA 5640 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	MKE 14:24	ORD 15:36	15%	5%	0.7%	65%
OO 4990 SkyWest	MKE 13:27	ORD 14:40	15%	5%	0.7%	no record
UA 4740 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	MKE 12:09	ORD 13:16	15%	5%	0.7%	69%
MQ 4096 Envoy	MKE 20:29	ORD 21:34	17%	4%	0.9%	no record
UA 5420 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	MKE 18:32	ORD 19:30	19%	5%	0.7%	73%
UA 5648 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	MKE 15:46	ORD 16:44	20%	6%	0.7%	51%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON