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Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7: United via O'Hare, leaving 05:00, is the safest bet: 90% chance of reaching San Diego on time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach San Diego on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (San Diego is 2 h behind Milwaukee). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → MKE 05:00 → ORD 05:59UA 5799 · flown by SkyWest 2h 47m Chicago ORD 08:46 → SAN 11:21UA 660 8h 21m 99% 90%
DeltaDetails → MKE 05:40 → ATL 08:41DL 1221 1h 18m Atlanta ATL 09:59 → SAN 11:43DL 843 8h 03m 98% 87%
DeltaDetails → MKE 06:50 → ATL 09:57DL 1236 1h 53m Atlanta ATL 11:50 → SAN 13:08DL 540 8h 18m 99% 87%
DeltaDetails → MKE 12:58 → ATL 16:07DL 1151 1h 53m Atlanta ATL 18:00 → SAN 19:41DL 712 8h 43m 100% 86%
UnitedDetails → MKE 08:50 → ORD 10:00UA 5402 · flown by SkyWest 3h 42m Chicago ORD 13:42 → SAN 16:00UA 559 9h 10m 99% 86%
DeltaDetails → MKE 07:11 → DTW 09:30DL 3757 · flown by SkyWest 3h 04m Detroit DTW 12:34 → SAN 14:26DL 761 9h 15m 97% 86%
DeltaDetails → MKE 07:00 → SLC 09:25DL 2716 1h 45m Salt Lake City SLC 11:10 → SAN 12:08DL 1296 7h 08m 98% 85%
DeltaDetails → MKE 10:12 → ATL 13:16DL 2999 2h 21m Atlanta ATL 15:37 → SAN 17:20DL 924 9h 08m 99% 85%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON