Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 11:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7: one nonstop, AS 507 at 14:59, with a 12% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day


AS 507 Alaska Flight history →	MKE 14:59	SEA 17:24	12%	3%	0.6%	78%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Seattle on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Seattle is 2 h behind Milwaukee). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	MKE 05:40 → ATL 08:41DL 1221	3h 52m Atlanta	ATL 12:33 → SEA 14:50DL 629	11h 10m	99%	90%
Delta Details →	MKE 10:12 → ATL 13:16DL 2999	1h 22m Atlanta	ATL 14:38 → SEA 16:49DL 481	8h 37m	98%	88%
Delta Details →	MKE 12:07 → MSP 13:26DL 561	1h 49m Minneapolis	MSP 15:15 → SEA 17:00DL 877	6h 53m	96%	88%
Delta Details →	MKE 15:59 → MSP 17:21DL 2006	1h 34m Minneapolis	MSP 18:55 → SEA 20:48DL 881	6h 49m	97%	86%
United Details →	MKE 05:00 → ORD 05:59UA 5799 · flown by SkyWest	2h 46m Chicago	ORD 08:45 → SEA 11:38UA 2099	8h 38m	99%	86%
Delta Details →	MKE 14:59 → ATL 18:06DL 1246	3h 29m Atlanta	ATL 21:35 → SEA 23:59DL 903	11h 00m	100%	86%
Delta Details →	MKE 07:11 → DTW 09:30DL 3757 · flown by SkyWest	2h 59m Detroit	DTW 12:29 → SEA 14:29DL 728	9h 18m	97%	86%
Delta Details →	MKE 12:58 → ATL 16:07DL 1151	1h 43m Atlanta	ATL 17:50 → SEA 20:11DL 714	9h 13m	99%	84%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON