Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 10:00 AM ET · 3 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7 looks like a normal day here: all 3 nonstops are 10–19% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day AA 6348 MRY 05:57 → PHX 07:55 · 10% chance 15+ min late · usually 80% on time Riskiest AA 3527 MRY 12:56 → PHX 14:56 · 19% chance 15+ min late · usually 94% on time

Against a calm day 15% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 11% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 6348 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	MRY 05:57	PHX 07:55	10%	6%	2.3%	80%
OO 4974 SkyWest	MRY 16:12	PHX 18:10	17%	8%	1.2%	no record
AA 3527 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	MRY 12:56	PHX 14:56	19%	6%	1.8%	94%worse than usual

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON