Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 5:00 AM ET · 4 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7 looks like a normal day here: all 4 nonstops are 24–33% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day OO 4633 MRY 19:10 → SFO 20:03 · 24% chance 15+ min late Riskiest UA 5502 MRY 08:00 → SFO 08:56 · 33% chance 15+ min late · usually 30% on time

Against a calm day 27% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 18% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


OO 4633 SkyWest	MRY 19:10	SFO 20:03	24%	10%	1.2%	no record
OO 5249 SkyWest	MRY 12:00	SFO 13:13	25%	14%	0.9%	no record
OO 4758 SkyWest	MRY 15:31	SFO 16:23	25%	12%	0.9%	no record
UA 5502 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	MRY 08:00	SFO 08:56	33%	17%	1.3%	30%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON