tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 11:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 6–11% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
YX 4391 Republic MSN 08:21 BOS 12:07 6% 3% 0.8% no record
YX 5849 Republic MSN 15:13 BOS 18:59 11% 6% 0.8% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Boston on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Boston is 1 h ahead of Madison). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → MSN 05:48 → ATL 08:57DL 1160 1h 08m Atlanta ATL 10:05 → BOS 12:45DL 855 5h 57m 98% 91%
UnitedDetails → MSN 06:41 → ORD 07:54UA 5902 · flown by SkyWest 1h 31m Chicago ORD 09:25 → BOS 12:57UA 1367 5h 16m 100% 91%
DeltaDetails → MSN 17:00 → ATL 20:24DL 2599 2h 16m Atlanta ATL 22:40 → BOS 01:20 +1DL 865 7h 20m 99% 90%
UnitedDetails → MSN 06:42 → ORD 07:48UA 2137 2h 42m Chicago ORD 10:30 → BOS 14:07UA 1606 6h 25m 99% 89%
AmericanDetails → MSN 06:15 → DCA 09:25AA 5374 · flown by PSA 1h 20m Washington DCA 10:45 → BOS 12:35AA 1015 5h 20m 100% 89%
AmericanDetails → MSN 12:24 → DCA 15:46AA 5221 · flown by PSA 3h 26m Washington DCA 19:12 → BOS 21:07AA 4668 · flown by Republic 7h 43m 98% 87%
UnitedDetails → MSN 06:29 → EWR 09:50UA 3482 · flown by Republic 2h 09m Newark EWR 11:59 → BOS 13:16UA 1669 5h 47m 98% 87%
DeltaDetails → MSN 08:52 → MSP 10:10DL 4103 · flown by SkyWest 2h 40m Minneapolis MSP 12:50 → BOS 16:50DL 2558 6h 58m 99% 87%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON