tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 1:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 6–10% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
AA 1002 American Flight history → MSN 08:15 CLT 11:31 6% 3% 0.7% 93%
AA 2443 American MSN 14:17 CLT 17:32 10% 3% 0.7% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Charlotte on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Charlotte is 1 h ahead of Madison). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → MSN 06:41 → ORD 07:54UA 5902 · flown by SkyWest 2h 32m Chicago ORD 10:26 → CLT 13:50UA 3450 · flown by Republic 6h 09m 100% 93%
AmericanDetails → MSN 07:06 → LGA 10:41AA 4490 · flown by Republic 1h 29m New York LGA 12:10 → CLT 14:14AA 1150 6h 08m 100% 91%
DeltaDetails → MSN 05:48 → ATL 08:57DL 1160 1h 13m Atlanta ATL 10:10 → CLT 11:26DL 3190 4h 38m 98% 91%
DeltaDetails → MSN 11:07 → ATL 14:13DL 2681 3h 47m Atlanta ATL 18:00 → CLT 19:21DL 3158 7h 14m 100% 91%
DeltaDetails → MSN 17:00 → ATL 20:24DL 2599 2h 17m Atlanta ATL 22:41 → CLT 23:58DL 3177 5h 58m 99% 90%
AmericanDetails → MSN 09:47 → ORD 10:50AA 3923 · flown by Envoy 2h 31m Chicago ORD 13:21 → CLT 16:31AA 1409 5h 44m 100% 88%
AmericanDetails → MSN 06:15 → DCA 09:26AA 5374 · flown by PSA 2h 26m Washington DCA 11:52 → CLT 13:17AA 761 6h 02m 100% 87%
AmericanDetails → MSN 15:26 → ORD 16:31AA 4038 · flown by Envoy 2h 16m Chicago ORD 18:47 → CLT 21:59AA 689 5h 33m 98% 86%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON