Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 2:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7 looks like a normal day here: all 4 nonstops are 6–9% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day OO 5927 MSN 05:24 → DEN 07:05 · 6% chance 15+ min late Riskiest OO 5485 MSN 17:55 → DEN 19:46 · 9% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 8% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 7% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


OO 5927 SkyWest	MSN 05:24	DEN 07:05	6%	3%	0.6%	no record
UA 1184 United	MSN 14:31	DEN 15:56	8%	2%	0.6%	no record
UA 2360 United Flight history →	MSN 08:50	DEN 10:20	8%	2%	0.6%	88%
OO 5485 SkyWest	MSN 17:55	DEN 19:46	9%	3%	0.6%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON