Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 9:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 11–15% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day


AA 797 American Flight history →	MSN 07:17	DFW 09:52	11%	5%	0.8%	77%
AA 1141 American	MSN 11:28	DFW 13:54	15%	5%	0.7%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Dallas-Fort Worth on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	MSN 05:48 → ATL 08:57DL 1160	2h 31m Atlanta	ATL 11:28 → DFW 12:44DL 414	6h 56m	99%	90%
Delta Details →	MSN 17:00 → ATL 20:24DL 2599	2h 30m Atlanta	ATL 22:54 → DFW 00:13 +1DL 818	7h 13m	99%	90%
United Details →	MSN 06:42 → ORD 07:48UA 2137	2h 41m Chicago	ORD 10:29 → DFW 13:12UA 441	6h 30m	99%	90%
American Details →	MSN 06:15 → DCA 09:26AA 5374 · flown by PSA	2h 33m Washington	DCA 11:59 → DFW 14:23AA 1623	8h 08m	100%	88%
American Details →	MSN 08:15 → CLT 11:30AA 1002	2h 37m Charlotte	CLT 14:07 → DFW 16:04AA 9781	7h 49m	99%	88%
United Details →	MSN 08:50 → DEN 10:20UA 2360	3h 25m Denver	DEN 13:45 → DFW 16:51UA 578	8h 01m	100%	87%
Delta Details →	MSN 11:07 → ATL 14:13DL 2681	3h 30m Atlanta	ATL 17:43 → DFW 19:03DL 1827	7h 56m	100%	87%
American Details →	MSN 09:47 → ORD 10:50AA 3923 · flown by Envoy	1h 25m Chicago	ORD 12:15 → DFW 14:45AA 3085	4h 58m	99%	86%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON