Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 9:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7 looks like a normal day here: all 4 nonstops are 6–7% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day 9E 5385 MSN 09:34 → DTW 11:57 · 6% chance 15+ min late Riskiest DL 5214 MSN 18:27 → DTW 20:51 · 7% chance 15+ min late · usually 74% on time

Against a calm day 6% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 4% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


9E 5385 Endeavor	MSN 09:34	DTW 11:57	6%	2%	1.2%	no record
9E 5099 Endeavor	MSN 07:34	DTW 09:57	6%	4%	1.6%	no record
9E 5338 Endeavor	MSN 13:28	DTW 15:52	6%	2%	1.2%	no record
DL 5214 Delta flown by Endeavor Flight history →	MSN 18:27	DTW 20:51	7%	3%	1.0%	74%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON