Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 10:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 5–9% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day


UA 3482 United flown by Republic Flight history →	MSN 06:29	EWR 09:50	5%	2%	1.6%	92%
UA 3675 United flown by Republic Flight history →	MSN 11:10	EWR 14:37	9%	3%	1.2%	78%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Newark on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Newark is 1 h ahead of Madison). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	MSN 05:48 → ATL 08:57DL 1160	1h 08m Atlanta	ATL 10:05 → EWR 12:21DL 2401	5h 33m	98%	90%
United Details →	MSN 05:16 → ORD 06:29UA 5902 · flown by SkyWest	1h 18m Chicago	ORD 07:47 → EWR 10:55UA 1273	4h 39m	99%	88%
United Details →	MSN 06:43 → ORD 07:49UA 2137	3h 02m Chicago	ORD 10:51 → EWR 14:17UA 1856	6h 34m	99%	86%
Delta Details →	MSN 17:49 → MSP 19:05DL 5480 · flown by Endeavor	1h 10m Minneapolis	MSP 20:15 → EWR 23:56DL 2846	5h 07m	94%	81%
United Details →	MSN 18:36 → ORD 19:39UA 5563 · flown by SkyWest	1h 51m Chicago	ORD 21:30 → EWR 00:53 +1UA 1209	5h 17m	95%	80%
Delta Details →	MSN 18:27 → DTW 20:51DL 5214 · flown by Endeavor	49m Detroit	DTW 21:40 → EWR 23:25DL 2609	3h 58m	91%	79%
Delta Details →	MSN 17:00 → ATL 20:24DL 2599	1h 18m Atlanta	ATL 21:42 → EWR 23:53DL 2527	5h 53m	97%	79%
United Details →	MSN 08:50 → DEN 10:20UA 2360	1h 17m Denver	DEN 11:37 → EWR 17:31UA 1233	7h 41m	96%	78%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON