Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 2:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7 looks like a normal day here: all 5 nonstops are 3–8% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day DL 3166 MSN 05:57 → MSP 07:17 · 3% chance 15+ min late Riskiest DL 5480 MSN 17:49 → MSP 19:05 · 8% chance 15+ min late · usually 65% on time

Against a calm day 6% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 6% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 3166 Delta	MSN 05:57	MSP 07:17	3%	3%	0.6%	no record
9E 5174 Endeavor	MSN 14:41	MSP 15:57	6%	3%	0.8%	no record
DL 4102 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	MSN 12:03	MSP 13:33	6%	3%	0.6%	85%
DL 4103 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	MSN 08:52	MSP 10:10	6%	3%	0.6%	78%
DL 5480 Delta flown by Endeavor Flight history →	MSN 17:49	MSP 19:05	8%	3%	0.7%	65%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON