Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · 14 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7: MQ 3819 at 05:09 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 10–18%.

Safest bet that day MQ 3819 MSN 05:09 → ORD 06:11 · 5% chance 15+ min late Riskiest UA 5563 MSN 18:35 → ORD 19:39 · 18% chance 15+ min late · usually 51% on time

Against a calm day 10% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 10% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


MQ 3819 Envoy	MSN 05:09	ORD 06:11	5%	2%	1.2%	no record
MQ 4216 Envoy	MSN 07:24	ORD 08:43	6%	2%	1.3%	no record
AA 3923 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	MSN 09:47	ORD 10:51	7%	2%	1.2%	79%
UA 5902 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	MSN 06:41	ORD 07:54	8%	3%	1.2%	89%
UA 2137 United Flight history →	MSN 06:42	ORD 07:48	8%	3%	0.8%	80%
UA 394 United	MSN 08:10	ORD 09:14	9%	3%	0.8%	no record
AA 3748 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	MSN 20:14	ORD 21:27	10%	3%	1.2%	69%
UA 1400 United	MSN 14:42	ORD 15:41	11%	3%	0.7%	no record
G7 4535 GoJet	MSN 10:30	ORD 11:44	12%	3%	1.6%	no record
AA 4038 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	MSN 15:26	ORD 16:31	13%	3%	1.2%	41%
UA 1851 United	MSN 16:04	ORD 17:18	13%	3%	0.7%	no record
AA 6256 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	MSN 13:07	ORD 14:17	13%	4%	0.9%	82%
UA 5383 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	MSN 12:39	ORD 13:43	15%	5%	0.9%	70%
UA 5563 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	MSN 18:35	ORD 19:39	18%	5%	1.0%	51%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON