Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 5:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 5–6% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day


OH 5318 PSA	MSN 06:13	PHL 09:34	5%	4%	0.9%	no record
AA 5334 American flown by PSA Flight history →	MSN 17:07	PHL 20:21	6%	4%	1.0%	78%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Philadelphia on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Philadelphia is 1 h ahead of Madison). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	MSN 05:48 → ATL 08:57DL 1160	2h 24m Atlanta	ATL 11:21 → PHL 13:24DL 2279	6h 36m	99%	90%
Delta Details →	MSN 17:00 → ATL 20:24DL 2599	2h 32m Atlanta	ATL 22:56 → PHL 00:59 +1DL 2642	6h 59m	99%	90%
United Details →	MSN 06:41 → ORD 07:54UA 5902 · flown by SkyWest	1h 33m Chicago	ORD 09:27 → PHL 12:34UA 729	4h 53m	100%	90%
United Details →	MSN 06:42 → ORD 07:48UA 2137	3h 45m Chicago	ORD 11:33 → PHL 14:47UA 2182	7h 05m	99%	87%
Delta Details →	MSN 08:52 → MSP 10:10DL 4103 · flown by SkyWest	59m Minneapolis	MSP 11:09 → PHL 14:43DL 2679	4h 51m	93%	87%
Delta Details →	MSN 11:07 → ATL 14:13DL 2681	1h 52m Atlanta	ATL 16:05 → PHL 18:12DL 1329	6h 05m	99%	85%
Delta Details →	MSN 17:49 → MSP 19:05DL 5480 · flown by Endeavor	1h 20m Minneapolis	MSP 20:25 → PHL 23:56DL 2703	5h 07m	95%	85%
American Details →	MSN 08:15 → CLT 11:30AA 1002	1h 32m Charlotte	CLT 13:02 → PHL 14:50AA 2573	5h 35m	96%	84%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON