tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Tue 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow: United via Denver, leaving 08:50, is the safest bet: 81% chance of reaching Phoenix on time.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
AA 1351 American MSN 14:37 PHX 16:24 13% 5% 0.7% no record
F9 9485 Frontier MSN 11:59 PHX 13:54 15% 8% 1.2% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Phoenix on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Phoenix is 2 h behind Madison). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → MSN 08:52 → MSP 10:10DL 4103 · flown by SkyWest 1h 22m Minneapolis MSP 11:32 → PHX 12:46DL 2274 5h 54m 97% 88%
DeltaDetails → MSN 05:48 → ATL 08:57DL 1160 2h 13m Atlanta ATL 11:10 → PHX 12:03DL 796 8h 15m 98% 88%
UnitedDetails → MSN 08:50 → DEN 10:20UA 2360 3h 08m Denver DEN 13:28 → PHX 14:34UA 631 7h 44m 100% 88%
AmericanDetails → MSN 08:15 → CLT 11:31AA 1002 3h 06m Charlotte CLT 14:37 → PHX 16:07AA 1711 9h 52m 100% 87%
UnitedDetails → MSN 06:43 → ORD 07:49UA 2137 3h 24m Chicago ORD 11:13 → PHX 13:06UA 2164 8h 23m 99% 87%
DeltaDetails → MSN 12:03 → MSP 13:33DL 4102 · flown by SkyWest 1h 21m Minneapolis MSP 14:54 → PHX 16:09DL 2284 6h 06m 96% 86%
DeltaDetails → MSN 12:11 → ATL 15:26DL 2681 1h 18m Atlanta ATL 16:44 → PHX 17:52DL 836 7h 41m 98% 86%
UnitedDetails → MSN 05:16 → ORD 06:29UA 5902 · flown by SkyWest 3h 31m Chicago ORD 10:00 → PHX 11:46UA 2225 8h 30m 100% 85%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON