Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 10:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow: United via Denver, leaving 14:25, is the safest bet: 75% chance of reaching Dallas-Fort Worth on time.

Nonstops that day


MQ 3677 Envoy	MSO 13:31	DFW 17:55	11%	3%	0.6%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Dallas-Fort Worth on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Dallas-Fort Worth is 1 h ahead of Missoula). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


United Details →	MSO 06:05 → DEN 08:11UA 1026	1h 29m Denver	DEN 09:40 → DFW 12:44UA 1350	5h 39m	98%	89%
United Details →	MSO 10:36 → DEN 12:48UA 5484 · flown by SkyWest	3h 00m Denver	DEN 15:48 → DFW 18:53UA 2230	7h 17m	100%	86%
United Details →	MSO 12:34 → ORD 17:05UA 636	2h 45m Chicago	ORD 19:50 → DFW 22:36UA 1673	9h 02m	94%	83%
United Details →	MSO 14:25 → DEN 16:30UA 1436	1h 02m Denver	DEN 17:32 → DFW 20:30UA 1565	5h 05m	90%	75%
Alaska Details →	MSO 13:59 → SEA 14:35AS 2219 · flown by Horizon	3h 17m Seattle	SEA 17:52 → DFW 23:40AS 542	8h 41m	97%	74%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON