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Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 10:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7: Delta via Minneapolis, leaving 05:55, is the safest bet: 93% chance of reaching Los Angeles on time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Los Angeles on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Los Angeles is 1 h behind Missoula). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → MSO 05:55 → MSP 09:28DL 2907 3h 41m Minneapolis MSP 13:09 → LAX 15:07DL 2974 10h 12m 99% 93%
UnitedDetails → MSO 06:05 → DEN 08:11UA 1026 1h 51m Denver DEN 10:02 → LAX 11:34UA 405 6h 29m 100% 91%
DeltaDetails → MSO 15:28 → MSP 19:05DL 362 2h 54m Minneapolis MSP 21:59 → LAX 23:53DL 2103 9h 25m 98% 87%
UnitedDetails → MSO 10:36 → DEN 12:48UA 5484 · flown by SkyWest 3h 28m Denver DEN 16:16 → LAX 17:36UA 1195 8h 00m 100% 86%
AlaskaDetails → MSO 13:11 → PDX 13:52AS 2042 · flown by Horizon 3h 45m Portland PDX 17:37 → LAX 20:09AS 278 7h 58m 99% 84%
UnitedDetails → MSO 14:25 → DEN 16:30UA 1436 3h 09m Denver DEN 19:39 → LAX 21:01UA 1460 7h 36m 98% 81%
UnitedDetails → MSO 16:19 → SFO 17:50UA 5417 · flown by SkyWest 3h 39m San Francisco SFO 21:29 → LAX 22:54UA 1079 7h 35m 100% 79%
UnitedDetails → MSO 12:34 → ORD 17:05UA 636 1h 27m Chicago ORD 18:32 → LAX 20:45UA 1967 9h 11m 94% 78%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON