Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 9:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7: one nonstop, AS 2042 at 13:11, with a 11% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day


AS 2042 Alaska flown by Horizon Flight history →	MSO 13:11	PDX 13:52	11%	3%	1.3%	82%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Portland on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Portland is 1 h behind Missoula). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	MSO 05:55 → MSP 09:28DL 2907	1h 30m Minneapolis	MSP 10:58 → PDX 12:39DL 1661	7h 44m	97%	92%
United Details →	MSO 16:19 → SFO 17:50UA 5417 · flown by SkyWest	3h 00m San Francisco	SFO 20:50 → PDX 22:48UA 2413	7h 29m	99%	87%
United Details →	MSO 14:25 → DEN 16:30UA 1436	3h 00m Denver	DEN 19:30 → PDX 21:15UA 498	7h 50m	97%	85%
Alaska Details →	MSO 16:08 → SEA 16:38AS 660	2h 13m Seattle	SEA 18:51 → PDX 19:47AS 434	4h 39m	98%	70%
Alaska Details →	MSO 13:59 → SEA 14:35AS 2219 · flown by Horizon	1h 20m Seattle	SEA 15:55 → PDX 16:51AS 441	3h 52m	91%	60%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON