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Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 10:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7: Delta via Minneapolis, leaving 05:55, is the safest bet: 89% chance of reaching San Diego on time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach San Diego on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (San Diego is 1 h behind Missoula). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → MSO 05:55 → MSP 09:28DL 2907 2h 10m Minneapolis MSP 11:38 → SAN 13:24DL 2125 8h 29m 99% 89%
UnitedDetails → MSO 06:05 → DEN 08:11UA 1026 3h 24m Denver DEN 11:35 → SAN 13:07UA 1940 8h 02m 100% 87%
UnitedDetails → MSO 16:19 → SFO 17:50UA 5417 · flown by SkyWest 3h 09m San Francisco SFO 20:59 → SAN 22:37UA 442 7h 18m 100% 83%
UnitedDetails → MSO 10:36 → DEN 12:48UA 5484 · flown by SkyWest 3h 07m Denver DEN 15:55 → SAN 17:20UA 1281 7h 44m 100% 82%
AlaskaDetails → MSO 13:11 → PDX 13:52AS 2042 · flown by Horizon 3h 42m Portland PDX 17:34 → SAN 19:58AS 667 7h 47m 99% 79%
UnitedDetails → MSO 14:25 → DEN 16:30UA 1436 2h 50m Denver DEN 19:20 → SAN 20:46UA 540 7h 21m 97% 78%
AlaskaDetails → MSO 13:59 → SEA 14:35AS 2219 · flown by Horizon 2h 41m Seattle SEA 17:16 → SAN 19:41AS 635 6h 42m 97% 64%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON