Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 10:00 PM ET · 3 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7: AS 722 at 07:02 is the safest bet, 16% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 24–30%.

Safest bet that day AS 722 MSO 07:02 → SEA 07:28 · 16% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AS 2219 MSO 13:59 → SEA 14:35 · 30% chance 15+ min late · usually 84% on time

Against a calm day 23% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 16% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AS 722 Alaska	MSO 07:02	SEA 07:28	16%	3%	0.7%	no record
AS 660 Alaska Flight history →	MSO 16:07	SEA 16:34	24%	3%	0.6%	82%
AS 2219 Alaska flown by Horizon Flight history →	MSO 13:59	SEA 14:35	30%	3%	1.0%	84%worse than usual

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON