Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 9:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7: one nonstop, UA 5417 at 16:19, with a 17% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day


UA 5417 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	MSO 16:19	SFO 17:50	17%	6%	1.0%	54%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach San Francisco on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (San Francisco is 1 h behind Missoula). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	MSO 05:55 → MSP 09:28DL 2907	1h 32m Minneapolis	MSP 11:00 → SFO 13:09DL 2074	8h 14m	97%	84%
United Details →	MSO 10:36 → DEN 12:48UA 5484 · flown by SkyWest	2h 59m Denver	DEN 15:47 → SFO 17:30UA 2633	7h 54m	100%	83%
Alaska Details →	MSO 13:11 → PDX 13:52AS 2042 · flown by Horizon	3h 59m Portland	PDX 17:51 → SFO 19:39AS 1393	7h 28m	99%	79%
United Details →	MSO 06:05 → DEN 08:11UA 1026	3h 10m Denver	DEN 11:21 → SFO 13:04UA 1561	7h 59m	100%	79%
United Details →	MSO 14:25 → DEN 16:30UA 1436	1h 24m Denver	DEN 17:54 → SFO 19:40UA 1007	6h 15m	94%	75%
Alaska Details →	MSO 13:59 → SEA 14:35AS 2219 · flown by Horizon	2h 01m Seattle	SEA 16:36 → SFO 18:48AS 1385	5h 49m	97%	72%
Alaska Details →	MSO 16:08 → SEA 16:38AS 660	1h 58m Seattle	SEA 18:36 → SFO 20:48AS 619	5h 40m	98%	71%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON