Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 2:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 15–16% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day


DL 411 Delta Flight history →	MSP 14:25	ANC 16:57	15%	2%	0.6%	73%
DL 377 Delta Flight history →	MSP 18:10	ANC 21:00	16%	3%	0.6%	66%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Anchorage on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Anchorage is 3 h behind Minneapolis). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	MSP 15:15 → SEA 17:00DL 877	2h 49m Seattle	SEA 19:49 → ANC 22:53DL 2367	10h 38m	99%	85%
United Details →	MSP 11:32 → ORD 13:15UA 576	2h 55m Chicago	ORD 16:10 → ANC 19:54UA 841	11h 22m	99%	84%
American Details →	MSP 10:21 → DFW 12:55AA 2220	2h 22m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 15:17 → ANC 19:28AA 399	12h 07m	99%	82%
Delta Details →	MSP 09:05 → SEA 10:59DL 868	2h 41m Seattle	SEA 13:40 → ANC 16:25DL 928	10h 20m	99%	80%
Alaska Details →	MSP 14:56 → SEA 16:50AS 555	3h 07m Seattle	SEA 19:57 → ANC 22:44AS 769	10h 48m	99%	75%
Alaska Details →	MSP 16:57 → SEA 18:52AS 510	3h 11m Seattle	SEA 22:03 → ANC 00:50 +1AS 1490	10h 53m	99%	75%
Alaska Details →	MSP 06:03 → SEA 07:58AS 387	1h 37m Seattle	SEA 09:35 → ANC 12:23AS 708	9h 20m	98%	70%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON