Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7: Delta via Atlanta, leaving 08:26, is the safest bet: 89% chance of reaching Asheville on time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Ranked by chance you reach Asheville on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Asheville is 1 h ahead of Minneapolis). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	MSP 08:26 → ATL 11:54DL 1052	1h 59m Atlanta	ATL 13:53 → AVL 15:02DL 3099	5h 36m	100%	89%
United Details →	MSP 05:45 → DEN 06:53UA 2041	2h 49m Denver	DEN 09:42 → AVL 14:42UA 1992	7h 57m	99%	88%
Delta Details →	MSP 05:20 → ATL 08:54DL 1062	3h 22m Atlanta	ATL 12:16 → AVL 13:12DL 1182	6h 52m	100%	87%
Delta Details →	MSP 14:31 → ATL 17:55DL 1048	2h 33m Atlanta	ATL 20:28 → AVL 21:38DL 3116	6h 07m	98%	83%
Delta Details →	MSP 10:32 → ATL 14:04DL 1046	2h 06m Atlanta	ATL 16:10 → AVL 17:20DL 3101	5h 48m	99%	82%
Delta Details →	MSP 10:05 → LGA 13:45DL 2764	2h 52m New York	LGA 16:37 → AVL 18:29DL 4665 · flown by Endeavor	7h 24m	99%	80%
American Details →	MSP 06:19 → CLT 10:00AA 894	3h 48m Charlotte	CLT 13:48 → AVL 14:44AA 5588 · flown by PSA	7h 25m	99%	80%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON