Wednesday, October 7 · typical odds for a Wednesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · 7 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7 looks like a normal day here: all 7 nonstops are 5–12% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day DL 2724 MSP 06:55 → BNA 08:58 · 5% chance 15+ min late · usually 90% on time Riskiest DL 2612 MSP 15:29 → BNA 17:35 · 12% chance 15+ min late · usually 79% on time

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 2724 Delta Flight history →	MSP 06:55	BNA 08:58	5%	1%	0.7%	90%
WN 3482 Southwest	MSP 07:25	BNA 09:27	6%	1%	0.6%	no record
DL 8949 Delta	MSP 13:32	BNA 15:39	9%	2%	0.6%	no record
DL 2843 Delta Flight history →	MSP 12:50	BNA 14:52	9%	2%	0.6%	89%
WN 342 Southwest	MSP 13:51	BNA 15:52	10%	2%	0.6%	no record
DL 1144 Delta Flight history →	MSP 20:20	BNA 22:26	11%	2%	0.6%	79%
DL 2612 Delta Flight history →	MSP 15:29	BNA 17:35	12%	3%	0.6%	79%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON