tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 2:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 5–6% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
DL 2946 Delta Flight history → MSP 10:57 BZN 12:30 5% 1% 0.6% 88%
DL 2954 Delta Flight history → MSP 22:23 BZN 23:52 6% 2% 0.6% 73%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Bozeman on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Bozeman is 1 h behind Minneapolis). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → MSP 12:29 → SLC 14:19DL 2651 3h 01m Salt Lake City SLC 17:20 → BZN 18:44DL 3676 · flown by SkyWest 7h 15m 100% 93%
UnitedDetails → MSP 06:00 → ORD 07:44UA 307 1h 26m Chicago ORD 09:10 → BZN 11:44UA 224 6h 44m 99% 92%
DeltaDetails → MSP 05:20 → ATL 08:54DL 1062 2h 15m Atlanta ATL 11:09 → BZN 13:11DL 406 8h 51m 99% 92%
DeltaDetails → MSP 18:13 → SLC 20:07DL 2607 2h 58m Salt Lake City SLC 23:05 → BZN 00:23 +1DL 2046 7h 10m 99% 92%
UnitedDetails → MSP 09:05 → DEN 10:21UA 1891 3h 18m Denver DEN 13:39 → BZN 15:27UA 513 7h 22m 100% 91%
DeltaDetails → MSP 15:15 → SEA 17:00DL 877 2h 59m Seattle SEA 19:59 → BZN 22:49DL 4039 · flown by SkyWest 8h 34m 100% 89%
UnitedDetails → MSP 11:32 → ORD 13:15UA 576 3h 46m Chicago ORD 17:01 → BZN 19:21UA 1920 8h 49m 99% 86%
AlaskaDetails → MSP 14:56 → SEA 16:50AS 555 3h 24m Seattle SEA 20:14 → BZN 22:52AS 1323 8h 56m 99% 81%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON