Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 11:00 AM ET · 4 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7 looks like a normal day here: all 4 nonstops are 7–12% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day DL 4998 MSP 09:21 → DSM 10:37 · 7% chance 15+ min late · usually 85% on time Riskiest DL 4913 MSP 15:56 → DSM 17:12 · 12% chance 15+ min late · usually 80% on time

Against a calm day 10% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 9% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 4998 Delta flown by Endeavor Flight history →	MSP 09:21	DSM 10:37	7%	2%	0.7%	85%
DL 5490 Delta flown by Endeavor Flight history →	MSP 13:17	DSM 14:33	8%	3%	0.7%	77%
DL 5253 Delta flown by Endeavor Flight history →	MSP 19:54	DSM 21:13	11%	4%	0.7%	73%
DL 4913 Delta flown by Endeavor Flight history →	MSP 15:56	DSM 17:12	12%	3%	0.7%	80%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON