Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Tue 7:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow: Delta via Salt Lake City, leaving 07:41, is the safest bet: 83% chance of reaching Honolulu on time.

Nonstops that day


DL 312 Delta Flight history →	MSP 10:10	HNL 13:43	11%	2%	0.6%	83%
DL 372 Delta	MSP 10:21	HNL 13:47	13%	3%	0.6%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Honolulu on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Honolulu is 5 h behind Minneapolis). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


United Details →	MSP 06:00 → ORD 07:44UA 307	2h 35m Chicago	ORD 10:19 → HNL 14:03UA 219	13h 03m	99%	85%
Delta Details →	MSP 06:04 → DTW 08:47DL 1461	1h 44m Detroit	DTW 10:31 → HNL 14:00DL 385	12h 56m	99%	84%
Delta Details →	MSP 05:20 → ATL 08:54DL 1062	56m Atlanta	ATL 09:50 → HNL 13:20DL 837	13h 00m	96%	84%
Delta Details →	MSP 07:41 → SLC 09:26DL 2628	2h 19m Salt Lake City	SLC 11:45 → HNL 14:19DL 316	11h 38m	100%	83%
United Details →	MSP 09:05 → DEN 10:21UA 1891	1h 39m Denver	DEN 12:00 → HNL 15:13UA 384	11h 08m	98%	82%
Delta Details →	MSP 09:20 → LAX 11:10DL 2102	2h 45m Los Angeles	LAX 13:55 → HNL 16:43DL 465	12h 23m	99%	81%
Delta Details →	MSP 15:01 → LAX 16:54DL 2974	1h 43m Los Angeles	LAX 18:37 → HNL 21:22DL 443	11h 21m	96%	79%
American Details →	MSP 07:34 → PHX 08:48AA 3143	1h 18m Phoenix	PHX 10:06 → HNL 14:05AA 693	11h 31m	95%	72%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON