Wednesday, October 7 · typical odds for a Wednesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · 8 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7 looks like a normal day here: all 5 nonstops are 4–12% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day WN 2903 MSP 06:15 → MDW 07:44 · 4% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 276 MSP 15:04 → MDW 16:38 · 12% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


WN 2903 Southwest	MSP 06:15	MDW 07:44	4%	1%	1.3%	no record
WN 4781 Southwest	MSP 10:33	MDW 12:08	8%	1%	0.9%	no record
WN 4715 Southwest	MSP 12:23	MDW 13:58	8%	2%	0.8%	no record
WN 254 Southwest	MSP 17:42	MDW 19:22	10%	3%	0.7%	no record
WN 276 Southwest	MSP 15:04	MDW 16:38	12%	2%	0.7%	no record
DL 4712 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	MSP 06:55	MDW 08:37	16%	9%	0.0%	84%
DL 4820 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	MSP 11:30	MDW 13:09	38%	15%	3.6%	62%
DL 4714 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	MSP 16:38	MDW 18:18	41%	23%	0.0%	59%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON