Wednesday, October 7 · typical odds for a Wednesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · 6 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7 looks like a normal day here: all 6 nonstops are 9–13% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day DL 2006 MSP 13:54 → MKE 15:09 · 9% chance 15+ min late · usually 83% on time Riskiest OO 3821 MSP 16:52 → MKE 18:14 · 13% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 2006 Delta Flight history →	MSP 13:54	MKE 15:09	9%	2%	0.6%	83%
OO 3804 SkyWest	MSP 07:50	MKE 09:11	9%	3%	0.6%	no record
DL 561 Delta Flight history →	MSP 10:05	MKE 11:17	9%	2%	0.6%	80%
OO 3848 SkyWest	MSP 18:05	MKE 19:27	12%	4%	0.6%	no record
OO 3738 SkyWest	MSP 19:45	MKE 21:07	12%	4%	0.6%	no record
OO 3821 SkyWest	MSP 16:52	MKE 18:14	13%	4%	0.6%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON