Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 2:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7 looks like a normal day here: all 5 nonstops are 7–10% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day 9E 5174 MSP 12:53 → MSN 14:05 · 7% chance 15+ min late Riskiest DL 5331 MSP 17:02 → MSN 18:14 · 10% chance 15+ min late · usually 60% on time

Against a calm day 9% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 8% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


9E 5174 Endeavor	MSP 12:53	MSN 14:05	7%	3%	0.8%	no record
DL 4103 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	MSP 07:00	MSN 08:11	8%	4%	0.5%	81%
DL 4102 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	MSP 10:12	MSN 11:19	9%	3%	0.5%	84%
DL 1599 Delta Flight history →	MSP 21:59	MSN 23:00	9%	4%	0.6%	83%
DL 5331 Delta flown by Endeavor Flight history →	MSP 17:02	MSN 18:14	10%	5%	0.8%	60%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON