Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 9:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 10–16% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day


DL 362 Delta Flight history →	MSP 12:45	MSO 14:38	10%	5%	0.6%	86%
DL 2610 Delta Flight history →	MSP 21:52	MSO 23:44	16%	6%	0.6%	76%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Missoula on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Missoula is 1 h behind Minneapolis). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	MSP 12:29 → SLC 14:19DL 2651	1h 46m Salt Lake City	SLC 16:05 → MSO 17:45DL 3808 · flown by SkyWest	6h 16m	98%	91%
Delta Details →	MSP 08:10 → SLC 09:59DL 2628	1h 04m Salt Lake City	SLC 11:03 → MSO 12:40DL 1723	5h 30m	96%	89%
Delta Details →	MSP 18:13 → SLC 20:07DL 2607	2h 39m Salt Lake City	SLC 22:46 → MSO 00:23 +1DL 1824	7h 10m	99%	89%
United Details →	MSP 06:00 → ORD 07:44UA 307	56m Chicago	ORD 08:40 → MSO 11:32UA 1180	6h 32m	95%	88%
United Details →	MSP 09:05 → DEN 10:21UA 1891	1h 12m Denver	DEN 11:33 → MSO 13:42UA 2357	5h 37m	97%	88%
Alaska Details →	MSP 06:03 → SEA 07:58AS 387	2h 00m Seattle	SEA 09:58 → MSO 12:30AS 2230 · flown by Horizon	7h 27m	99%	75%
Alaska Details →	MSP 14:56 → SEA 16:50AS 555	3h 39m Seattle	SEA 20:29 → MSO 22:53AS 1435	8h 57m	99%	73%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON