Wednesday, October 7 · typical odds for a Wednesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · 19 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7: UA 307 at 06:00 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 17–32%.

Safest bet that day UA 307 MSP 06:00 → ORD 07:44 · 8% chance 15+ min late · usually 92% on time Riskiest UA 1237 MSP 19:12 → ORD 20:40 · 32% chance 15+ min late · usually 49% on time

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 307 United Flight history →	MSP 06:00	ORD 07:44	8%	4%	1.2%	92%
AA 1011 American	MSP 06:02	ORD 07:43	11%	5%	1.6%	no record
DL 1544 Delta Flight history →	MSP 07:00	ORD 08:30	11%	5%	1.2%	83%
UA 2000 United	MSP 09:49	ORD 11:25	15%	6%	0.9%	no record
DL 1533 Delta Flight history →	MSP 13:25	ORD 15:05	16%	9%	0.9%	71%
AA 4162 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	MSP 10:31	ORD 12:16	17%	6%	1.7%	89%
DL 1567 Delta Flight history →	MSP 10:00	ORD 11:32	17%	5%	0.9%	72%
MQ 3551 Envoy	MSP 11:01	ORD 12:42	17%	7%	1.5%	no record
AA 2472 American	MSP 20:52	ORD 22:27	17%	9%	0.8%	no record
UA 576 United Flight history →	MSP 11:32	ORD 13:15	18%	10%	0.9%	73%
UA 2790 United	MSP 13:12	ORD 14:55	18%	9%	0.8%	no record
UA 2773 United	MSP 08:05	ORD 09:36	18%	6%	1.0%	no record
AA 2448 American	MSP 14:18	ORD 15:49	20%	9%	0.9%	no record
DL 1563 Delta Flight history →	MSP 20:15	ORD 21:52	22%	11%	1.0%	68%
DL 1306 Delta Flight history →	MSP 15:20	ORD 16:59	25%	13%	1.0%	57%
MQ 4228 Envoy	MSP 18:01	ORD 19:34	26%	9%	1.7%	no record
UA 1531 United Flight history →	MSP 15:23	ORD 17:05	26%	14%	0.9%	55%
UA 424 United	MSP 16:48	ORD 18:25	31%	13%	1.0%	no record
UA 1237 United Flight history →	MSP 19:12	ORD 20:40	32%	12%	0.8%	49%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON