Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 1:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7 looks like a normal day here: all 4 nonstops are 8–9% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day DL 3714 MSP 21:45 → RAP 22:26 · 8% chance 15+ min late · usually 73% on time Riskiest DL 3851 MSP 14:45 → RAP 15:29 · 9% chance 15+ min late · usually 82% on time

Against a calm day 8% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 8% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 3714 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	MSP 21:45	RAP 22:26	8%	2%	0.6%	73%
DL 3971 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	MSP 09:33	RAP 10:18	8%	2%	0.5%	85%
DL 3967 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	MSP 12:55	RAP 13:40	8%	2%	0.5%	83%
DL 3851 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	MSP 14:45	RAP 15:29	9%	2%	0.5%	82%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON