Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 5–11% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day


DL 5063 Delta flown by Endeavor Flight history →	MSP 10:00	RIC 13:33	5%	3%	0.7%	69%
DL 5530 Delta flown by Endeavor Flight history →	MSP 20:08	RIC 23:34	11%	5%	0.7%	70%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Richmond on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Richmond is 1 h ahead of Minneapolis). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	MSP 05:20 → ATL 08:54DL 1062	1h 21m Atlanta	ATL 10:15 → RIC 11:56DL 2650	5h 36m	99%	93%
Delta Details →	MSP 08:26 → ATL 11:54DL 1052	2h 52m Atlanta	ATL 14:46 → RIC 16:23DL 1214	6h 57m	100%	93%
Delta Details →	MSP 07:00 → ATL 10:32DL 1039	1h 58m Atlanta	ATL 12:30 → RIC 14:07DL 3152	6h 07m	99%	92%
Delta Details →	MSP 09:00 → DTW 11:42DL 1433	2h 43m Detroit	DTW 14:25 → RIC 16:07DL 3073	6h 07m	99%	92%
Delta Details →	MSP 10:32 → ATL 14:04DL 1046	3h 08m Atlanta	ATL 17:12 → RIC 18:53DL 1348	7h 21m	100%	89%
American Details →	MSP 06:01 → DFW 08:27AA 1395	1h 59m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 10:26 → RIC 14:36AA 1915	7h 35m	98%	89%
United Details →	MSP 11:32 → ORD 13:15UA 576	1h 15m Chicago	ORD 14:30 → RIC 17:49UA 3523 · flown by Republic	5h 17m	96%	89%
Delta Details →	MSP 10:05 → BOS 13:51DL 2655	2h 19m Boston	BOS 16:10 → RIC 18:17DL 5665 · flown by Republic	7h 12m	99%	89%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON