Wednesday, October 7 · typical odds for a Wednesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7: Delta via Salt Lake City, leaving 12:29, is the safest bet: 83% chance of reaching San Jose on time.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


DL 2383 Delta Flight history →	MSP 10:05	SJC 12:01	10%	2%	0.6%	90%
DL 2087 Delta Flight history →	MSP 18:30	SJC 20:35	13%	3%	0.7%	68%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach San Jose on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (San Jose is 2 h behind Minneapolis). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	MSP 07:06 → LAX 09:00DL 2110	3h 57m Los Angeles	LAX 12:57 → SJC 14:12DL 3842 · flown by SkyWest	9h 06m	100%	91%
Delta Details →	MSP 15:15 → SEA 17:00DL 877	3h 30m Seattle	SEA 20:30 → SJC 22:48DL 3956 · flown by SkyWest	9h 33m	100%	90%
Delta Details →	MSP 13:09 → LAX 15:08DL 2974	3h 09m Los Angeles	LAX 18:17 → SJC 19:32DL 3883 · flown by SkyWest	8h 23m	100%	89%
Delta Details →	MSP 09:05 → SEA 10:59DL 868	3h 46m Seattle	SEA 14:45 → SJC 17:05DL 3897 · flown by SkyWest	10h 00m	99%	89%
Delta Details →	MSP 12:29 → SLC 14:19DL 2651	3h 12m Salt Lake City	SLC 17:31 → SJC 18:29DL 1172	8h 00m	100%	87%
Delta Details →	MSP 14:31 → ATL 17:55DL 1048	3h 04m Atlanta	ATL 20:59 → SJC 22:49DL 933	10h 18m	98%	87%
Delta Details →	MSP 11:30 → LAX 13:23DL 2119	2h 43m Los Angeles	LAX 16:06 → SJC 17:27DL 1359	7h 57m	99%	87%
Delta Details →	MSP 05:20 → ATL 08:54DL 1062	49m Atlanta	ATL 09:43 → SJC 11:30DL 809	8h 10m	94%	85%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON