tailodds FORECAST
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Any day
Wednesday, October 7 · typical odds for a Wednesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7: United via Denver, leaving 05:45, is the safest bet: 80% chance of reaching Santa Ana on time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
DL 2107 Delta Flight history → MSP 18:28 SNA 20:20 19% 4% 0.7% 68%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Santa Ana on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Santa Ana is 2 h behind Minneapolis). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → MSP 09:05 → DEN 10:21UA 1891 3h 04m Denver DEN 13:25 → SNA 14:57UA 1707 7h 52m 99% 86%
AlaskaDetails → MSP 14:56 → SEA 16:50AS 555 2h 20m Seattle SEA 19:10 → SNA 22:01AS 631 9h 05m 98% 84%
DeltaDetails → MSP 15:15 → SEA 17:00DL 877 2h 35m Seattle SEA 19:35 → SNA 22:21DL 3695 · flown by SkyWest 9h 06m 99% 84%
UnitedDetails → MSP 07:35 → IAH 10:30UA 2460 1h 59m Houston IAH 12:29 → SNA 14:12UA 1533 8h 37m 98% 83%
DeltaDetails → MSP 14:31 → ATL 17:55DL 1048 3h 04m Atlanta ATL 20:59 → SNA 22:25DL 826 9h 54m 98% 82%
AmericanDetails → MSP 06:01 → DFW 08:27AA 1395 2h 55m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 11:22 → SNA 12:45AA 1933 8h 44m 98% 81%
DeltaDetails → MSP 05:20 → ATL 08:54DL 1062 2h 06m Atlanta ATL 11:00 → SNA 12:31DL 329 9h 11m 99% 81%
AmericanDetails → MSP 10:21 → DFW 12:55AA 2220 3h 15m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 16:10 → SNA 17:33AA 3223 9h 12m 99% 81%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON