Wednesday, October 7 · typical odds for a Wednesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · 7 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7 looks like a normal day here: all 6 nonstops are 5–14% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day WN 2907 MSP 08:04 → STL 09:37 · 5% chance 15+ min late Riskiest DL 1609 MSP 21:50 → STL 23:22 · 14% chance 15+ min late · usually 78% on time

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


WN 2907 Southwest	MSP 08:04	STL 09:37	5%	1%	0.5%	no record
DL 1289 Delta	MSP 09:04	STL 10:43	8%	2%	0.6%	no record
DL 1224 Delta	MSP 15:11	STL 16:50	10%	2%	0.6%	no record
WN 2908 Southwest	MSP 16:26	STL 17:59	11%	3%	0.5%	no record
OO 3811 SkyWest	MSP 13:42	STL 15:22	13%	3%	0.5%	no record
DL 1609 Delta Flight history →	MSP 21:50	STL 23:22	14%	3%	0.6%	78%
DL 5286 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	MSP 07:00	STL 08:42	28%	14%	0.0%	72%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON