tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 11:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 8–11% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
DL 2264 Delta Flight history → MSP 10:00 TPA 14:08 8% 2% 0.8% 82%
DL 2385 Delta Flight history → MSP 18:15 TPA 22:26 11% 3% 0.9% 75%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Tampa on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Tampa is 1 h ahead of Minneapolis). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → MSP 05:20 → ATL 08:54DL 1062 3h 52m Atlanta ATL 12:46 → TPA 14:13DL 1525 7h 53m 100% 89%
UnitedDetails → MSP 05:45 → DEN 06:53UA 2041 2h 47m Denver DEN 09:40 → TPA 15:14UA 1010 8h 29m 99% 88%
UnitedDetails → MSP 06:00 → ORD 07:44UA 307 3h 35m Chicago ORD 11:19 → TPA 15:12UA 1834 8h 12m 100% 88%
DeltaDetails → MSP 06:04 → DTW 08:47DL 1461 1h 28m Detroit DTW 10:15 → TPA 12:50DL 2587 5h 46m 99% 87%
DeltaDetails → MSP 08:26 → ATL 11:54DL 1052 2h 07m Atlanta ATL 14:01 → TPA 15:35DL 1720 6h 09m 100% 87%
AmericanDetails → MSP 06:19 → CLT 10:00AA 894 2h 31m Charlotte CLT 12:31 → TPA 14:24AA 2915 7h 05m 99% 86%
UnitedDetails → MSP 09:05 → DEN 10:21UA 1891 3h 34m Denver DEN 13:55 → TPA 19:33UA 2375 9h 28m 100% 86%
DeltaDetails → MSP 07:05 → LGA 10:44DL 2719 1h 45m New York LGA 12:29 → TPA 15:28DL 2106 7h 23m 98% 86%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON