Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 2:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7: one nonstop, DL 3995 at 10:24, with a 9% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day


DL 3995 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	MSP 10:24	TVC 12:54	9%	3%	0.6%	81%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Traverse City on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Traverse City is 1 h ahead of Minneapolis). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


United Details →	MSP 05:45 → DEN 06:53UA 2041	2h 56m Denver	DEN 09:49 → TVC 14:35UA 2420	7h 50m	99%	84%
Delta Details →	MSP 16:15 → DTW 18:59DL 1476	4h 00m Detroit	DTW 22:59 → TVC 00:08 +1DL 2424	6h 53m	100%	84%
United Details →	MSP 15:23 → ORD 17:05UA 1531	1h 19m Chicago	ORD 18:24 → TVC 20:32UA 677	4h 09m	92%	62%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON