Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 9:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7: Delta via Atlanta, leaving 05:20, is the safest bet: 93% chance of reaching Valparaiso on time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Ranked by chance you reach Valparaiso on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	MSP 05:20 → ATL 08:54DL 1062	1h 21m Atlanta	ATL 10:15 → VPS 10:29DL 2048	5h 09m	99%	93%
Delta Details →	MSP 07:00 → ATL 10:32DL 1039	3h 18m Atlanta	ATL 13:50 → VPS 14:00DL 2832	7h 00m	99%	91%
Delta Details →	MSP 08:26 → ATL 11:54DL 1052	3h 49m Atlanta	ATL 15:43 → VPS 16:01DL 2170	7h 35m	100%	91%
Delta Details →	MSP 17:18 → ATL 21:06DL 1036	2h 09m Atlanta	ATL 23:15 → VPS 23:29DL 3097	6h 11m	99%	91%
American Details →	MSP 06:01 → DFW 08:26AA 1395	1h 04m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 09:30 → VPS 11:28AA 2460	5h 27m	96%	80%
American Details →	MSP 10:21 → DFW 12:54AA 2220	3h 43m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 16:37 → VPS 18:38AA 2673	8h 17m	99%	76%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON