tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 8% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
OO 3761 SkyWest MSP 09:09 XNA 11:08 8% 3% 0.6% no record
OO 3751 SkyWest MSP 14:29 XNA 16:31 8% 4% 0.6% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Fayetteville/Springdale/ on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → MSP 08:10 → SLC 09:59DL 2628 3h 28m Salt Lake City SLC 13:27 → XNA 17:08DL 3620 · flown by SkyWest 8h 58m 100% 92%
UnitedDetails → MSP 05:45 → DEN 06:53UA 2041 2h 57m Denver DEN 09:50 → XNA 12:47UA 5267 · flown by SkyWest 7h 02m 99% 88%
UnitedDetails → MSP 09:05 → DEN 10:21UA 1891 3h 09m Denver DEN 13:30 → XNA 16:25UA 5641 · flown by SkyWest 7h 20m 100% 88%
AmericanDetails → MSP 10:21 → DFW 12:55AA 2220 3h 49m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 16:44 → XNA 18:11AA 3693 · flown by Envoy 7h 50m 99% 86%
DeltaDetails → MSP 10:32 → ATL 14:04DL 1046 3h 10m Atlanta ATL 17:14 → XNA 18:05DL 2771 7h 33m 100% 86%
DeltaDetails → MSP 14:31 → ATL 17:55DL 1048 1h 41m Atlanta ATL 19:36 → XNA 20:34DL 1710 6h 03m 96% 84%
AmericanDetails → MSP 06:01 → DFW 08:27AA 1395 1h 35m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 10:02 → XNA 11:26AA 2025 5h 25m 97% 82%
UnitedDetails → MSP 13:36 → DEN 14:48UA 1305 3h 02m Denver DEN 17:50 → XNA 20:48UA 1351 7h 12m 100% 79%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON