Wednesday, October 7 · typical odds for a Wednesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · 9 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7: DL 1547 at 05:20 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 16–33%.

Safest bet that day DL 1547 MSY 05:20 → ATL 07:54 · 5% chance 15+ min late · usually 92% on time Riskiest F9 2052 MSY 17:06 → ATL 19:59 · 33% chance 15+ min late · usually 58% on time

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 1547 Delta Flight history →	MSY 05:20	ATL 07:54	5%	2%	0.7%	92%
DL 1534 Delta Flight history →	MSY 06:20	ATL 08:57	6%	2%	0.7%	92%
DL 2522 Delta Flight history →	MSY 07:28	ATL 10:00	8%	3%	0.7%	90%
DL 3128 Delta Flight history →	MSY 09:13	ATL 11:43	8%	3%	0.7%	93%
DL 1424 Delta Flight history →	MSY 10:34	ATL 13:05	8%	2%	0.7%	92%
DL 2542 Delta Flight history →	MSY 12:42	ATL 15:16	12%	2%	0.7%	86%
DL 3157 Delta Flight history →	MSY 15:22	ATL 18:01	15%	3%	0.7%	76%
DL 3146 Delta Flight history →	MSY 17:00	ATL 19:35	16%	3%	0.7%	84%
F9 2052 Frontier Flight history →	MSY 17:06	ATL 19:59	33%	9%	1.1%	58%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON