Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 5:00 AM ET · 5 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7 looks like a normal day here: all 5 nonstops are 3–12% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day WN 2729 MSY 07:46 → AUS 09:18 · 3% chance 15+ min late Riskiest DL 4016 MSY 15:51 → AUS 17:38 · 12% chance 15+ min late · usually 78% on time

Against a calm day 8% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 6% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 2729 Southwest	MSY 07:46	AUS 09:18	3%	1%	0.6%	no record
WN 2065 Southwest	MSY 10:25	AUS 11:57	6%	1%	0.6%	no record
WN 1521 Southwest	MSY 13:35	AUS 15:08	9%	2%	0.6%	no record
WN 4086 Southwest	MSY 16:59	AUS 18:32	11%	2%	0.6%	no record
DL 4016 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	MSY 15:51	AUS 17:38	12%	3%	0.6%	78%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON