Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 8:00 AM ET · 4 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7 looks like a normal day here: all 4 nonstops are 7–15% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day AA 2287 MSY 10:19 → CLT 13:31 · 7% chance 15+ min late · usually 91% on time Riskiest AA 2615 MSY 17:52 → CLT 21:02 · 15% chance 15+ min late · usually 75% on time

Against a calm day 10% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 10% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 2287 American Flight history →	MSY 10:19	CLT 13:31	7%	2%	0.7%	91%
AA 424 American Flight history →	MSY 08:16	CLT 11:27	8%	2%	0.6%	91%
AA 2997 American	MSY 14:30	CLT 17:40	12%	3%	0.7%	no record
AA 2615 American Flight history →	MSY 17:52	CLT 21:02	15%	3%	0.7%	75%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON