Wednesday, October 7 · typical odds for a Wednesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7 looks like a normal day here: all 5 nonstops are 17–24% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day WN 684 MSY 10:49 → DCA 14:26 · 17% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 2236 MSY 17:32 → DCA 21:11 · 24% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 684 Southwest	MSY 10:49	DCA 14:26	17%	3%	0.6%	no record
AA 2586 American	MSY 13:51	DCA 17:43	18%	6%	1.0%	no record
OH 5274 PSA	MSY 10:14	DCA 14:13	20%	7%	1.9%	no record
AA 1788 American Flight history →	MSY 17:14	DCA 21:05	22%	7%	1.1%	61%
WN 2236 Southwest	MSY 17:32	DCA 21:11	24%	6%	0.6%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON