Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 5:00 AM ET · 5 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7: WN 2927 at 06:11 is the safest bet, 3% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 11–18%.

Safest bet that day WN 2927 MSY 06:11 → DEN 07:58 · 3% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 2929 MSY 17:37 → DEN 19:35 · 18% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 11% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 10% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 2927 Southwest	MSY 06:11	DEN 07:58	3%	1%	0.6%	no record
UA 1376 United Flight history →	MSY 08:04	DEN 10:05	8%	2%	0.6%	86%
UA 8182 United	MSY 20:32	DEN 22:19	11%	3%	0.6%	no record
UA 2216 United Flight history →	MSY 18:02	DEN 19:43	16%	3%	0.6%	84%
WN 2929 Southwest	MSY 17:37	DEN 19:35	18%	3%	0.6%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON