tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Wednesday, October 7 · typical odds for a Wednesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 13–16% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
B6 1822 JetBlue Flight history → MSY 07:45 FLL 10:42 13% 4% 1.5% 84%
B6 2722 JetBlue Flight history → MSY 13:42 FLL 16:50 16% 7% 1.1% 51%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Fort Lauderdale on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Fort Lauderdale is 1 h ahead of New Orleans). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → MSY 05:20 → ATL 07:54DL 1547 2h 31m Atlanta ATL 10:25 → FLL 12:23DL 1512 6h 03m 99% 89%
DeltaDetails → MSY 06:20 → ATL 08:57DL 1534 2h 28m Atlanta ATL 11:25 → FLL 13:20DL 2063 6h 00m 99% 87%
UnitedDetails → MSY 07:00 → IAH 08:19UA 2124 3h 45m Houston IAH 12:04 → FLL 15:47UA 1982 7h 47m 99% 85%
DeltaDetails → MSY 07:28 → ATL 10:00DL 2522 2h 31m Atlanta ATL 12:31 → FLL 14:27DL 1341 5h 59m 99% 85%
SouthwestDetails → MSY 10:14 → BNA 11:54WN 1146 2h 36m Nashville BNA 14:30 → FLL 17:51WN 1317 6h 37m 100% 84%
UnitedDetails → MSY 12:07 → IAH 13:26UA 2253 3h 21m Houston IAH 16:47 → FLL 20:34UA 277 7h 27m 100% 84%
DeltaDetails → MSY 09:13 → ATL 11:43DL 3128 2h 02m Atlanta ATL 13:45 → FLL 15:41DL 1413 5h 28m 98% 83%
UnitedDetails → MSY 09:53 → IAH 11:12UA 2105 3h 27m Houston IAH 14:39 → FLL 18:10UA 1424 7h 17m 99% 81%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → MSY 14:15 → ORD 16:54UA 1301 52m Chicago ORD 17:46 → FLL 21:43UA 463 6h 28m 65% 43%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON