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Wednesday, October 7 · typical odds for a Wednesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7: Delta via Atlanta, leaving 06:20, is the safest bet: 72% chance of reaching New York on time.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
DL 1387 Delta Flight history → MSY 18:57 JFK 23:05 14% 5% 1.6% 84%
DL 1322 Delta Flight history → MSY 10:20 JFK 14:31 17% 4% 2.3% 88%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach New York on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (New York is 1 h ahead of New Orleans). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → MSY 05:20 → ATL 07:54DL 1547 1h 50m Atlanta ATL 09:44 → JFK 12:00DL 1034 5h 40m 98% 85%
DeltaDetails → MSY 17:00 → ATL 19:35DL 3146 3h 04m Atlanta ATL 22:39 → JFK 00:55 +1DL 1632 6h 55m 95% 81%
DeltaDetails → MSY 07:28 → ATL 10:00DL 2522 3h 55m Atlanta ATL 13:55 → JFK 16:29DL 1575 8h 01m 99% 81%
DeltaDetails → MSY 06:20 → ATL 08:57DL 1534 2h 08m Atlanta ATL 11:05 → JFK 13:20DL 2380 6h 00m 99% 80%
DeltaDetails → MSY 13:30 → SLC 16:01DL 736 1h 09m Salt Lake City SLC 17:10 → JFK 23:47DL 697 9h 17m 95% 80%
DeltaDetails → MSY 12:42 → ATL 15:16DL 2542 3h 29m Atlanta ATL 18:45 → JFK 21:29DL 2398 7h 47m 98% 79%
DeltaDetails → MSY 11:19 → DTW 14:48DL 2790 1h 30m Detroit DTW 16:18 → JFK 18:29DL 2934 6h 10m 97% 77%
DeltaDetails → MSY 16:30 → MSP 19:15DL 2695 1h 13m Minneapolis MSP 20:28 → JFK 00:05 +1DL 2692 6h 35m 91% 77%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON